The following is summarized from BMO's Special Report entitled "Will Canada's Housing Boom Forge On, Fizzle Out, or Flame Out?", released on January 30, 2012.
According to some experts, the housing boom is more likely going to cool down, rather than correct. With a few exceptions, valuations remain moderately high across Canada, with sales and price growth evening out across the board. Recent tightening of mortgage term rules has steadied the national average price, and, along with the tightening on credit approvals, has caused a slow-down in spending, meaning that less people may be buying than before. However, home ownership is at a record-high level across Canada, at around 70%. Household debt levels in Canada remain lower than those of our US neighbours, with the average homebuyer spending about 35% of their income on mortgage payments, consistent with long-term norms. This is due in part to low interest rates, which are not expected to increase dramatically, and should should keep affordability in check for the next while. For current owners who are locked into a low-rate mortgage for 5+ years, which is 68% of us, even moderate rate increases will not put too much of a stress on affordability.
In B.C., sales remain soft, with prices generally declining. Some of the stall in Vancouver sales is due to fewer high-end sales and a shift toward lower-prices condos, with many residents having to settle for a small downtown condo or a larger home in the suburbs. In Vancouver, an elevated price-to-income ratio still exists, having nearly doubled in the past 10 years. The presale market has cooled, due to a number of factors, including the 70% presale requirement that condo complexes must reach before receiving construction funding, larger deposits required by lenders, and developers prohibiting buyers from selling before closing. This, although cooling the fervour, has also curbed the fear and presale sales remain steady.
The national housing market is still relatively pricey, but not near bubble territory. If interest rates spike, a severe, unforeseeable recession occurs, or if foreign investment is halted, prices will fall, but each of these triggers remains unlikely in the near future. Resale markets are balanced and inline with long-term norms, and the majority of major cities across Canada will see a calmed real estate market that is more of a cool than a crash.
Overall, this fares well for both buyers and sellers - in a steady market, both sides win.
